How To Pick Long Shots by Christian Blake

Thanks for visiting my site.

I offer two handicapping products:

  1. Beat the Favorite – $7 per day
  2. Daily Selections (not available – email me if you want to be put on the waiting list)

Beat the Favorite 

I offer a list of races where I see the potential for a longshot winner. This is basically a “Beat the Favorite” list where I believe the morning line favorite is unlikely to win. You can use this list and focus on those particular races and try to handicap a potential longshot winner or you can use this as a list of races where you select the ALL button on your multi-race exotic tickets.

I offer my “Beat the Favorite” list Thursday thru Sunday (and occasionally Wednesdays).

If purchase links are inactive, it means the list is not available yet (check back 16 hours prior to first post). Always REFRESH your browser before making a purchase to make sure the proper link is active for the upcoming date.

$7 Beat the Favorite – (click to purchase) Weak ML favorites from the following tracks:


$7 Beat the Favorite – Friday 9-29-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Thursday 9-28-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Sunday 9-24-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Saturday 9-23-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Friday 9-22-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Thursday 9-21-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Wednesday 9-20-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Sunday  9-17-2017 VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Saturday  9-16-2017   VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Friday  9-15-2017  VIEW RESULTS

$7 Beat the Favorite – Thursday  9-14-2017  VIEW RESULTS


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Daily Selections

30 Days worth of Selections – (not available)

Sunday, April 16th 2017

If you want to know how I manage my bankroll, scroll down to the bottom of this post. If you’re interested in my daily selections, please continue reading.

My selections are available for purchase. Here’s the specifics:

  • 30 days worth of selections
  • Average of 15 selections per week
  • Selections are emailed to you after I’ve taken the scratches into consideration (usually by 10am PST)
  • My selections include a mix of favorites and long shots
  • Although I can’t guarantee you’ll hit a long shot every week, I usually hit at least one high-payout horse per month (latest was Green Gratto $110 on April 8th, 2017 at Aqueduct)

I track my ROI on a weekly basis (Monday through Sunday). It’s rare when I have a negative week but it does happen. While I occasionally play exotics such as a cold Daily Double or a cheap Pick 4, my profit/loss is based entirely on Win bets.

My selections are for the horse player that wants to earn a living playing Win bets. In order to make a profit from the price point of $995, you should be wagering a minimum of $50 Win bets.

I accept payments by check, and I offer two formats for receiving selections:

  1. Weekends only – I email you my selections for Saturday and Sunday each week until you reach 30 days worth of picks. (I don’t recommend this option as some of my best payouts are long shots that win during the middle of the week).
  2. Thirty consecutive days – I email my selections to you for thirty consecutive days of racing.

I handicap and wager every day. I wager online, at the track, and at various casinos in Vegas and Lake Tahoe.

At the present time I am not offering my horse racing selections. Check back soon.

How I Manage My Bankroll

  • My Win Bets are based on 1% of my bankroll (Example: for a $10,000 bankroll, my Win Bets would be $100 each).
  • I track my wagers (Win/Loss/Payout) Monday through Sunday.
  • I calculate my ROI with the following formula:  (Gross Return – Investment) / Investment

While most people scoff at Win bets, I’ve found them to be the most reliable method for maintaining consistent profits. I will never tell you how to wager…but I will track my results (ROI, “Return on Investment”) based entirely on Win bets (Monday thru Sunday).


Previous weeks results:

Monday April 24th thru Sunday April 30th

Total selections: 11…Total Winners: 3… Win Rate: 27%

Theoretical Net Profit based on $100 Wagers: $135

ROI: 12%


Monday April 17th thru Sunday April 23rd

Total selections: 10…Total Winners: 3… Win Rate: 30%

Theoretical Net Profit based on $100 Wagers: $130

ROI: 13%


Monday April 10th thru Sunday April 16th

Total selections: 10…Total Winners: 3… Win Rate: 30%

Theoretical Net Profit based on $100 Wagers: -$290

ROI: -29%


Monday April 3rd thru Sunday April 9th

Total selections: 16…Total Winners: 5… Win Rate: 31%

Theoretical Net Profit based on $100 Wagers: $4,500

ROI: 281%


Monday March 27th thru Sunday April 2nd

Total selections: 17…Total Winners: 7… Win Rate: 41%

Theoretical Net Profit based on $100 Wagers: $2,415

ROI: 142%

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Recent Long Shots
Long Shots from Thursday 9/24 thru Sunday 9/27 Biggest long shot of the weekend: Novelty Act ($100) 9/26 #2 Late Pace AP 9
Thursday 9/24 Este Es ($22.40), Gabriel's Cat ($39.40), Captain Toews ($16.80) Above Fashion ($13.40), Erik the Red ($11.40), What's Fair ($15.00)Lydia's Angel ($19.60), Aunt Dixiejo ($19.40)
Friday 9/25 Estrada's Girl ($70.00), Loki's Vengeance ($13.40), Britannia's Moat ($12.40), Ila ($12.80), Super Zapper ($10.40)
Saturday 9/26 Key to Power ($13.00), Novelty Act ($100.20), Tiz Happening ($30.20),Aix En Provence ($14.20), Danalin ($11.00), Berra ($22.40), Palace Gate ($16.20), Teresa`s Pride ($27.70)
Sunday 9/27 Curlins Pride ($10.60), Gotcha Key ($30.40), Silver Sassy ($74.00), Arte Latino ($15.60), Rock Solid Golfer ($13.40) Tallow ($14.80),
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